Hot and dry start to July...changing soon

Afternoon temperatures overperformed a bit yesterday as highs were a degree or so above what I expected. That could be the case again today, but afternoon highs should be a degree or two lower than yesterday over Houston and Acadiana. It'll be a similar story for tomorrow, still hot but afternoon temperatures will trend down a tad as the ridge of high pressure loosens its grip on the region.

Those temps will settle down closer to normal all of the upcoming week as we see increased moisture, and the region will settle on the fringes of a weak ridge of high pressure to the east and south and weak trough of low pressure to the north and west. As we've been expecting, rain chances will start going up as well. They will remain quite low today and tomorrow, but will start ramping up Monday. By Monday morning, I'd expect to see early morning showers and storms just off the coast which will translate inland during the day along the sea breeze (land breeze / sea breeze is my favorite summer time weather phenomena). Monday, much of the region will see a 30-40% chance of rain which will increase to the 50-60% range by Wednesday and Thursday.

It looks like the ridge will build back in towards next weekend leading to a downward trend in rain chances and upward trend in temps, but its placement and strength will not lead as much of an oppressive heat event. July is looking much more normal and wet than later half of June.